TSE-300 data is gathered from the last trading day of the named quarter beginning in the fourth quarter of 1991 and ending in the fourth quarter of 1999.
Certain accommodations were made in order to expedite the research. Data on some aspects of the Canadian economy tend to be difficult to find. Because of the presence of the North American Free Trade Agreement and long-standing customs and behaviors, the Canadian and U.S. economies are highly fluid with respect to one another. The two countries' respective capital markets are also very closely tied. Where noted, these considerations are especially called upon to justify the model.
U.S. real Gross Domestic Product, measured in fixed 1996 dollars, as reported by the Federal Reserve. Within the model, this data is converted into quarterly growth rates.
The closing level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the last trading day of the named quarter, as reported under "Historical Quotes" at www.bigcharts.com.
The closing level of the NASDAQ composite index on the last trading day of the named quarter, as reported under "Historical Quotes" at www.bigcharts.com.
Change in Canada's Gross Domestic Product. Data from 1991 through 1997 are calculated from real GDP in constant 1992 dollars collected from the 1999 Canada Year Book. Data are available only on an annualized basis. Data from 1998 and 1999 are taken from a mid-1999 report by Toronto Dominion Bank, which credits the same source as the Canada Year Book.
li>The Consumer Sentiment Index, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is measured by the University of Michigan in a survey of consumers.
U.S. debt service payments as a percentage of disposable personal income, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is used under the assumptions that (i) capital markets are highly fluid between the United States and Canada, and (ii) consumer habits and behavior are similar in both countries.
U.S. total public debt is measured in end-of-month totals, calculated from the total debt of the Federal government, as reported by the Federal Reserve.
The Monetary Conditions Index measures the 90-day commercial paper rate and adds an index of the Canadian dollar's strength against the U.S. dollar, the Euro, the yen, the pound, the Swiss franc, and the Swedish krona. It is measured by the Bank of Canada.
Rates on 90-day commercial certificates of deposit are reported by the Bank of Canada, and are based on the average last week of the last month in each named quarter.
Average yield on 3-month Treasury bills are measured from the last month of each named quarter, as reported by the Bank of Canada.