Gongol.com Archives: July 2025
July 5, 2025
An enormous flash flood in central Texas has led to a heartbreaking number of deaths, numbering at least in the dozens and including children lost from summer camps along a river basin. ■ Much of the shock follows the nearly unthinkable rate of rise on the Guadalupe River. One atmospheric scientist identifies the rainfall behind the flooding as a once-in-1,000-year event. ■ A scientist at the Weather Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, who issued one of the forecasts the day before warning of flash flooding to come, has already begun unpacking what happened meteorologically and how they attempted to offer advance notice to the public, but it's evident that intensification took place that almost certainly goes beyond what could have been warned with precision. ■ We would be in grave error to ignore the signs that storms over land may be subject to similar kinds of rapid intensification already widely recognized as a problem for hurricane forecasting. It's not a problem for tropical locations alone, either: A storm over southern Iowa caused a dangerous 6" rain total not even two weeks ago. ■ Much more scientific research is in order -- research that has few likely sources of funding other than the public. And the same goes for timely warning systems: We need an institution dedicated to advising and protecting the public, no matter where and without regard as to whether the advice can be monetized. ■ That's what we are supposed to get from NOAA and its various offices and services. Those duties are quite certain to become even more important for the foreseeable future, not less, and if we as the public expect those duties to be fulfilled, we had better realize our part in furnishing the resources to pay for them.
